Combined Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic and Locust Plague on Grain Production and Trade Patterns in South Asia

The COVID-19 pandemic and the outbreak of locust plague in Pakistan have severely impacted grain production trade South Asia, thereby posing serious threats to global security. This study formulated a comprehensive analysis crop yield restrictions consequent combined impact with GTAP model quantitatively simulated characteristics mechanisms changes patterns major crops (paddy rice wheat) Asia. Results indicate that affected imports exports varying degrees. Grain was reduced by 15% shrank sharply, total shrinking 5.79% 1.41%, respectively. also led international food prices changing significantly, which further influenced affordability accessibility, especially for developing countries are heavily dependent on imports. Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh were regions experienced highest rises import prices, caused processed Bhutan Maldives, drop 81%, 77%, 80%, 89%, Furthermore, affected. Asian countries’ links China, Europe, Africa, Latin America weakened. mainly converged Australia, United States, being main exporters. findings this paper helpful identify facing high security risks can shed light policy measures address dual challenge guaranteeing post-epidemic era.